Predictions for Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and CeeDee Lamb
If you’re planning to make prop bets or any other wagers on season-long NFL player production, here are our suggested 2022 bets for some of the Dallas Cowboys’ key playmakers. All prop bets are based on FanDuel over/unders, featuring Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and CeeDee Lamb.
Top Dallas Cowboys prop bets for 2022
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on 10 years of NFL research analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these assessments.
If not for his season-ending 2020 injury, Dak Prescott might have been one of the elites heading into 2022. In less than five full games that year, he was on pace for a ridiculous 6,000+ passing yards. Instead, two ankle surgeries later, Prescott returned last year to near-elite passing form, yet still lacks the “wow” season that bettors look for in a reliably high-performing QB.
As a result, Prescott’s projections are somewhat muted, based on what we’ve seen across full seasons, rather than what we could realistically see this season. Sure, he’s lost Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson Jr., and Michael Gallup and James Washington are sidelined. But he still has more surrounding talent than most QBs, led by the ascending CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz, along with promising rookie Jalen Tolbert.
Prescott’s backfield was the 10th-most targeted in the league last year. He should outperform expectations with a repeat of 2021’s passing numbers, which I see as more of a floor than a ceiling. With this in mind, I’m recommending the following prop bets for the upcoming regular season.
Passing yards: Over 4,250.5
Passing TDs: Over 30.5
It’s not easy to bet against Ezekiel Elliott, especially with reduced market expectations. But based on historical usage and snap-count data, I sounded the alarm (admittedly, tentatively) last summer.
This summer I’m sounding five alarms. There’s a significant chance that Tony Pollard will outperform Elliott in the second half of the season. Plus, Elliott is also a higher-than-normal injury risk.
These headwinds are too strong to ignore. Among active NFL leaders in career rushing attempts and rushing yards, Elliott trails only Mark Ingram. Age-wise, Elliott’s still in his prime at 27. However, his massive workload has taken a toll on his rushing efficiency, while his per-game rushing attempts have dropped each season since 2018 — not coincidentally coinciding with Pollard’s arrival.
Rushing yards: Under 850.5
Rushing TDs: Under 7.5
I’m the only person I know who’s ranked Lamb ahead of Cooper Kupp. To those who don’t know my research or track record, this prediction might seem ignorant at best. And I understand that, because as the consensus No. 1 WR heading into 2022, Kupp is the safe choice.
But we shouldn’t bet based solely on last year’s stats. Dozens of variables go into my rankings, and most of them favored Lamb. With that in mind, the 23-year-old is an ascending talent who, after two NFL seasons, is finally his team’s unquestioned No. 1 wideout. No more Cooper and Gallup is banged up.
Yes, there’s still plenty of talent with Schultz and Tolbert. But Lamb hit 1,102 yards and six TDs last year despite having only 120 targets — the same as Marvin Jones and six fewer than Jakobi Meyers. A healthy Lamb is primed for elite production, and thus, I like him to hit the over on receiving yards and touchdown prop bets this season.
Receiving yards: Over 1,200.5
Receiving TDs: Over 7.5