49ers Trending in Opposite Directions
Our Week 10 Sunday Night Football prediction tells a tale of two sides of the ball with San Francisco. With Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm in San Francisco, they have been able to rely on a ferocious defense and a capable offense.
However, according to our sports betting model, the trends may be changing as the team enters the second half of the season. Perhaps this is why the Pikkit community has them as a popular futures pick to win the division.
- Against the Spread
- Confidence Rating
- Final Score Projection
San Francisco 27 – Los Angeles 23
49ers’ Offense Getting Better, Defense Getting Worse
According to our behavioral sports betting model, this Chargers vs. 49ers prediction comes down to the sustainability of the serious growth San Francisco is seeing on both sides of the ball week over week.
On defense, which for years has been the scene of success for the team on the backs of Nick Bosa and one of the more popular 2023 head coach candidates, Demeco Ryans, the team is, unfortunately, seeing the trend for giving up points going in the wrong direction.
In fact, the 49ers are giving up points at the second-fastest growth rate in the entire NFL, behind only Tampa Bay.
With an acceleration rate of x1.85, the team is increasing the rate at which they give up points by a whopping 85% week over week. Now, for what it’s worth, that rate is not likely to continue. A growth rate that large is seen as unsustainable.
If it were to continue, they would be giving up 50 points in Week 14. This week they face a Chargers offense without their top two receivers. This could be a good week for them to get back to baseline.
On offense, Garoppolo is leading an offense that is growing at a rate of 66% week over week at scoring points. The team has a baseline of 19.83 points scored per game, and yet five out of the seven games Garoppolo has played in have been above that mark, with three of those five going for more than four touchdowns.
While this x1.66 acceleration rate through nine weeks is not considered to be sustainable (if it were, we could be seeing a 50 points performance around Week 13), it is impressive nonetheless. He is leading an offense ranked sixth in EPA on all throws, excluding spikes.
The concern for the Chargers? They may not be able to take advantage of a 49ers defense trending in the wrong direction as they will be without both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on offense.
Their defense has been trending in the right direction giving up 11% fewer points week-over-week through their first eight games. Can it keep a surging 49ers offense out of the end zone enough times on Sunday Night Football to come out with a victory?
The Behavior Bets model says no. San Francisco is projected to win 27-23 in this Chargers vs. 49ers prediction. However, we do project the Chargers to cover the +7.5 point spread, and I have bet on them to cover. That said, it is the 49ers we take on the moneyline, and we project them to ultimately win regardless of the point spread.
With an over/under set at 45 points and the model predicting a total of 50 points, we recommend the over. The 49ers are putting up points, and while the Chargers will be without their top two receiving weapons, Justin Herbert will need to sling it all over the yard to keep pace with San Francisco. If the trends hold for another week, the 49ers’ defense may give him the opportunity to do just that.
All of that said, I am recommending bettors be extra cautious with their bets on this. The 49ers would be a team I typically stay away from given the celeration rates they are sporting on both sides of the ball. I don’t believe either to be sustainable. The question isn’t if they begin to regress back to baseline, but when.
The Behavior Bets model started November with a winning record, +46.71% ROI, and a profit of 16.6 units. Let’s keep it rolling this week with this Chargers vs. 49ers Sunday Night Football prediction.