Dynasty value, injury history, landing spots, and more
Iowa running back Tyler Goodson is a worthwhile prospect to evaluate for dynasty fantasy football leagues in 2022. He finished his collegiate career with highs in attempts (256), yards (1,151), and touchdowns (7). How should dynasty fantasy managers view Goodson, and what NFL teams might be tempted to draft him?
Tyler Goodson’s dynasty fantasy profile
Tyler Goodson checks in at a solid 5’10” and 200 pounds. What are the best parts of his game, and what aspects of his profile might he need to overcome to succeed at the NFL level?
Goodson’s best attribute is his receiving ability. He posted a 12% college target share and caught 31 passes for 247 yards and a touchdown as a junior in 2021.
We’ve seen plenty of running backs find relevant roles at the NFL level based on their receiving ability alone. Goodson’s pass-catching acumen will make him appealing to NFL teams and enable him to more easily carve out a role.
Goodson managed to produce an 1,100-yard rushing season despite multiple factors working against him. He saw an incredibly high number of eight-man boxes and played for a relatively low-scoring and low-volume Iowa offense.
Goodson has the size and enough talent to be a three-down back at the NFL level. He is certainly not going to have that role as a rookie — at least not on purpose. But if an NFL team needed to use him in that role, I’m confident he would be just fine.
Although he could be a three-down back if needed, I don’t see that in the cards for Goodson. He profiles more as someone like J.D. McKissic. Perhaps Theo Riddick is a better comparison, as they are the exact same size. Both McKissic and Riddick have had stretches of fantasy relevance in their careers, but at no point was either knocking on the door of averaging 12+ carries a game.
I’m worried about how Goodson will perform in athletic testing. Neither Riddick nor McKissic had strong athletic measurables, but each excelled in one aspect (McKissic had great burst and Riddick had strong agility). Hopefully, Goodson can test well in at least one of these aspects, which would go a long way toward him carving out an NFL role.
In Cam Mellor’s February 12 Mock Draft, he projects Goodson to go in the fourth round. Day 3 draft capital is difficult to overcome. The best Day 3 running backs in recent history are guys like Tony Pollard and Chase Edmonds. If you go back a little further, you can find Aaron Jones — but he’s the exception, not the rule.
Goodson would do well to have a career like 2017 fourth-round pick Tarik Cohen or 2018 fourth-round pick Nyheim Hines. Both have had multiple stretches of fantasy relevance and quality on-field performance. Goodson’s likely ceiling is a fantasy RB3.
Goodson injury history
Goodson has a clean injury history. He didn’t miss a game in his three seasons at Iowa.
Top landing spots for Goodson’s dynasty value
For fantasy managers looking into Goodson in their dynasty rookie drafts, what NFL teams should be looking at Goodson?
The Dolphins are notorious for not investing high draft capital in the running back position. They haven’t drafted a running back before Day 3 since Kenyan Drake in 2016.
Over the past two seasons, we’ve seen several different replacement-level running backs post RB1 or RB2 fantasy weeks. Myles Gaskin, Duke Johnson, and Salvon Ahmed have all had flashes. Goodson is just as good, if not better than all three of them.
The Dolphins do not have their answer at running back. That answer may not end up being Goodson. Or he may end up just being a short-term fix.
Either way, Goodson is the exact type of running back the Dolphins typically target. If they grab him in the fourth or fifth round, barring an unlikely free agent signing, he would not have a challenging depth chart to climb and could find himself on fantasy rosters at some point during his rookie season.
The Falcons have far more pressing issues than running back. Although that’s an overall negative for players on the team, it’s a positive for their chances of drafting Goodson.
It’s unlikely the Falcons will invest a Day 2 pick on a running back. Mike Davis is a cut candidate; Cordarrelle Patterson is a free agent. They also seem reluctant to commit to Patterson as their feature running back.
If Goodson ends up in Atlanta, he could be their primary passing-down back as a rookie. Matt Ryan is just about done, but he can still support multiple fantasy-relevant options.
And again, we’re not looking for Goodson to be an elite RB1 here. If he can work his way into a 30-40% snap share on the Falcons as a rookie, he could be a PPR RB3. Merely being on the field will also give him a chance to impress coaches and earn more work.
This is admittedly a long-shot prediction as it requires multiple moving parts to fall in the right places. Both James Conner and Chase Edmonds are free agents. If even one of them leaves, the Cardinals have an opening at running back. Why not Goodson?
This is not a team that’s going to spend a Day 2 pick on a running back. They already hit once on a Day 3 running back with Edmonds. If he leaves, Goodson could replace him in the same role. Even just 4-6 carries and 3-5 targets a game would put Goodson in a spot to produce in fantasy.
Arizona is also a good place to play the long game with Goodson. Edmonds was completely irrelevant in fantasy football for his first two seasons. Not every rookie dynasty pick has to produce immediately.
With the Cardinals, fantasy managers could sit on Goodson for a year or two with the knowledge that he could get a chance down the line in an elite offense.